IWR in the news

20/01/08

Brown hopes we've forgiven broken promises

Neil O’Brien in the Sunday Telegraph

Gordon Brown doesn't want to give you a vote on the revived EU Constitution. But, funnily enough, you might be about to be get one anyway, particularly if you live in a marginal parliamentary seat.

As the Government tries to push the rejected constitution - now rebranded the "Lisbon Treaty" - through the Commons next month, the I Want a Referendum campaign group will be organising a series of constituency-based referendums to be held across the country.

In the first phase, roughly half a million people will be getting ballot papers through their doors.

That alone will be the biggest vote on since the last national referendum in 1975. For the first time in a generation, people will be asked in large numbers which way they want the European Union to go.

But even if people say they don't want the constitutional treaty, will the Government listen to them?

When the broken promise of a referendum first became an issue last summer, Gordon Brown was 13 points ahead in the polls. Today he is 10 points behind.

Arguably, that broken promise has played a big role in that reversal by driving a wedge between the Prime Minister and previously supportive allies in the media.

But one way or another, the Prime Minister is certainly no longer in a position to ignore the wish of the overwhelming majority of Labour voters to have a referendum.

Continuing to defend the decision to break the referendum promise would play perfectly into the hands of the Tories as they attempt to portray him as untrustworthy and cowardly.

Second, attitudes to the European Union are changing on the centre-Left and Labour backbenchers are reassessing their views.

In recent months, the European Commission has proposed a health directive that looks a lot like the Conservatives' old plan for a "patient's passport".

The Court of Justice has shocked trade union members with two rulings allowing wages to be dramatically undercut and cost the Treasury billions by allowing multinational companies to avoid corporation tax.

Most importantly, the Government's fundamental case is terrible.

The bottom line is that no one believes the Government for a second when it says that this isn't just the rejected constitution under another name.

According to a poll by YouGov, 94 per cent do not believe the Government.

But Gordon Brown's calculation is that although people want a referendum, and although they are angry that the Government has not kept its promise, ultimately people don't care enough.

Is this cynical assumption right? Are politicians right to take the voters for fools? The results of the forthcoming referendums will tell us.

If you want to get involved, please visit www.iwantareferendum.com or telephone 020 7197 2333.

• is spokesman for the cross-party campaign group, I Want a Referendum